Beleggen in S&P 500 via ETF's

[nobody]

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/IUSA.AS?p=IUSA.AS

46,29 Euro

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Citi is bullish on the S&P 500 with a year-end-target of 5,100

Yahoo Finance

Citi Research reiterated its 5,100 year-end target for the S&P 500 (^GSPC). With so many corporate earnings coming in overly positive, results have reaffirmed Wall Street's beliefs that the market will see potential rallies in conjunction with a soft landing scenario for the economy.

Citi Research Head of US Equity Strategy Scott Chronert joins Yahoo Finance to discuss the call and gives insights into how equities could move on economic data.

Chronhert affirms: "The way we've been framing it is that we have had this strong rally, let's call it since the beginning of November, which is in response to Ten-Year yields coming down from 5 to as low as 3.8%.

What that has done is increased a soft landing profile around the broader market set-up, but what's happened is that move has come before we've actually seen a more defined earnings turn in many more cyclical parts of the market, including the consumer side. So, essentially, what we're suggesting here is that... ten-year nominals become your really important interest rate benchmark to keep an eye on..."

[ZyppBe]

Super Micro Computer and Deckers Outdoor Set to
Join S&P 500; Others to Join S&P 100, S&P MidCap
400 and S&P SmallCap 600
https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/docum ... 24shuf.pdf

NEW YORK, March 1, 2024: S&P Dow Jones Indices (“S&P DJI”) will make the following changes to
the S&P 500, S&P 100, S&P MidCap 400, and S&P SmallCap 600 indices effective prior to the open of
trading on Monday, March 18, to coincide with the quarterly rebalance. The changes ensure each index
is more representative of its market capitalization range. All companies being added to the S&P 500 are more representative of the large-cap market space, all companies being added to the S&P MidCap 400
are more representative of the mid-cap market space, and all companies being added to the S&P
SmallCap 600 are more representative of the small-cap market space. The companies being removed
from the S&P SmallCap 600 are no longer representative of the small-cap market space.

• S&P MidCap 400 constituents Super Micro Computer Inc. (NASD: SMCI) and Deckers Outdoor
Corp. (NYSE: DECK) will replace Whirlpool Corp. (NYSE: WHR) and Zion Bancorporation N.A.
(NASD: ZION) in the S&P 500 respectively, and Whirlpool and Zion Bancorporation will replace
Super Micro Computer and Deckers Outdoor in the S&P MidCap 400, respectively.

• S&P 500 constituent Intuit Inc. (NASD:INTU) will replace Exelon Corp. (NASD: EXC) in the S&P
100. Exelon is no longer representative of the mega-cap market space. Exelon will remain in the
S&P 500.

• S&P SmallCap 600 constituents Cytokinetics Inc. (NASD: CYTK) and Applied Industrial
Technologies Inc. (NYSE: AIT) will replace Calix Inc. (NYSE: CALX) and Medical Properties
Trust Inc. (NYSE: MPW) in the S&P MidCap 400 respectively, and Calix and Medical Properties
Trust will replace Cytokinetics and Applied Industrial Technologies in the S&P SmallCap 600,
respectively.

• Magnolia Oil & Gas Corp. (NYSE: MGY), Air Lease Corp. (NYSE: AL), Box Inc. (NYSE: BOX),
BGC Group Inc. (NASD: BGC), BlackLine Inc. (NASD:BL), Arch Resources Inc. (NYSE: ARCH)
and MGE Energy Inc. (NASD: MGEE) will replace America’s Car Mart Inc (NASD: CRMT),
TrueBlue Inc. (NYSE: TBI), Forrester Research Inc. (NASD: FORR), Oil States International Inc.
(NYSE: OIS), Digital Turbine Inc (NASD: APPS), Consensus Cloud Solutions Inc. (NASD:
CCSI) and iRobot Corp. (NASD: IRBT) respectively in the S&P SmallCap 600

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Koers vandaag;

-IUSA: 46,73 euro

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Super Micro Computer (SMCI) Added To S&P 500 Index

Schwab Network

Super Micro Computer (SMCI) joined the S&P 500 Index or SPX. The SMCI stock price is up 250% year-to-date.

Super Micro Computer CEO stated that "this achievement shows the dedication and hard work of our entire worldwide team to... become a leader in the emerging A.I. space."

Renita Young also weighs in on the tech company's speed-to-market efforts.

[nobody]

Goldman says megacap bull case might take S&P 500 to 6,000

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. strategists are sticking with their year-end S&P 500 forecast level of 5,200, but have a scenario in which tech megacaps lead the index up another 15%.

The firm is sticking with its current prediction because the federal funds rate path and economic-growth trajectory are fully priced by markets, strategists led by David Kostin wrote in a note. As the outlook for valuations was uncertain, the analysts explored potential scenarios outside of the base case.

One of those is the idea that valuations of megacap tech companies may continue to expand, sending the gauge to 6,000 by year-end and reaching a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 23, they said.

“Although AI optimism appears high, long-term growth expectations and valuations for the largest TMT stocks are still far from ‘bubble’ territory,” the strategists wrote.

The S&P 500 is up almost 10% this year and closed Friday at 5,234.18. That’s already left many strategists’ year-end forecasts in the dust. The combination of healthy US economic data, expectations the Federal Reserve will cut rates and optimism about artificial intelligence stocks are among the factors that have helped the gauge advance.

A large part of the market remains weighed down by concerns of “high-for-longer” rates and an elevated cost of capital as investors seek quality attributes, Goldman noted. That’s one area where a change might help stocks go higher.

“A shift in the interest rate outlook without a deterioration in the economy is necessary for the market rally to broaden,” the strategists said.

Goldman gave estimates of where the index may be headed in several other scenarios. In one, a “catch-up” to pre-pandemic 2018 valuations might see the gauge end the year at 5,800, they said.

The other two are much more bearish — a “catch-down” situation where sales-growth estimates prove too optimistic, or where investors start to price in the risk of a recession. Either of these might see the S&P 500 end the year at 4,500, the strategists said.

https://www.theedgesingapore.com/news/u ... p-500-6000

[nobody]

S&P 500 closes higher to secure strongest Q1 since 2019

NEW YORK (March 29): The S&P 500 closed out the week with slight gains on Thursday, with the benchmark index notching its strongest first quarter in five years, as investors digested the latest batch of economic data while looking towards the next inflation reading.

Each of the three main U.S. indexes recorded solid quarterly gains, led by a climb of 10.16% for the S&P 500, aided by optimism over artificial intelligence (AI) related stocks and expectations the U.S. Federal Reserve will begin to cut interest rates this year.

The blue-chip Dow sits less than 1% away from breaching the 40,000 level for the first time.

Data on Thursday showed the U.S. economy grew faster than previously estimated in the fourth quarter, partly due to strong consumer spending, while a separate report showed initial jobless claims indicated the labor market remains on solid footing.

"The economy is in pretty good shape, the consumer is in pretty good shape and still spending, unemployment is still on the low side, and there continues to be pockets where the economy is thriving ... So there's money that is wanting to be spent in a variety of different ways," said George Young, portfolio manager at Villere & Company in New Orleans.

"And then you've got that carrot that the Fed's kind of holding out there saying, we may just be lowering and we may just be lowering, and everybody's trying to parse their words."

While U.S. equity markets will be closed for the Good Friday holiday, the focus will be on the release of the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE), the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, for clues on the timing and size of rate cuts this year from the central bank.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 47.29 points, or 0.12%, to 39,807.37, the S&P 500 gained 5.86 points, or 0.11%, to 5,254.35 and the Nasdaq Composite lost 20.06 points, or 0.12%, to 16,379.46.

For the week, the Dow rose 0.84%, the S&P 500 advanced 0.39% and the Nasdaq slipped 0.3%. In March, the Dow climbed 2.08%, the S&P gained 3.1% and the Nasdaq added 1.79%. For the quarter, the Dow gained 5.62%, the S&P 500 shot up 10.16% and the Nasdaq rallied 9.11%.

Overnight, Fed Governor Christopher Waller said recent disappointing inflation data affirms the case for the central bank to hold off on cutting its short-term interest rate target, but did not rule out trimming rates later in the year.

Markets are pricing in a roughly 64% chance the Fed will cut rates by at least 25 basis points (bps) in June, according to CME's FedWatch Tool.

While communication services, energy and tech were the best performing of the 11 major sectors this quarter, only real estate suffered a decline.

Walgreens Boots shares rose 3.19% after its quarterly earnings in which it recorded an impairment charge on its investment in clinic operator VillageMD.

Home Depot slipped 0.59% after the home improvement retailer said it would buy building materials supplier SRS Distribution in an $18.25 billion deal in its largest acquisition.

Advancing issues outnumbered decliners by a 1.87-to-1 ratio on the NYSE. On the Nasdaq, advancing issues outnumbered decliners by a 1.42-to-1 ratio.

The S&P 500 posted 91 new 52-week highs and no new lows while the Nasdaq recorded 275 new highs and 52 new lows.

Volume on U.S. exchanges was 11.17 billion shares, compared with the 12.07 billion average for the full session over the last 20 trading days.

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/706267

[nobody]

Why the S&P 500 is '10% above where it should be': Strategist

Yahoo Finance

Nvidia (NVDA) has been on a downturn, with a three-day losing streak. As a result, the S&P 500 (^GSPC) also began to slump as Nvidia holds considerable weight in the index.

Stifel chief equity strategist Barry Bannister joins Morning Brief to give insight into Nvidia's recent performance, its weight on the S&P 500, and what investors need to consider for the broader market moving forward.

"The market's expensive. If you look at the way we calculate equity risk premium, the earnings yield above the risk-free yield on offer; it's at about two and a half. We think it should be about three. So, the S&P is a good 10% above where it should be.

There are a lot of other ways to value the market and look at equity ownership as a percent of households financial assets. These are at record highs. These are at enormous levels.

So we're concerned about future returns being lowered by the high level of today." Bannister tells Yahoo Finance.

He continues by estimating where the market is headed: "We don't see any Fed rate cuts this year, and as a consequence, the market can pull back, and that's been our call...I wouldn't feel disappointed if it fell 10% to about 4900. We've been saying 4750."

[nobody]

Stock meltdown puts S&P 500 on brink of correction

From New York to London and Tokyo, equities got pummelled. Just as markets started celebrating signals from the Federal Reserve about a first rate cut, they were hit by a perfect storm — weak economic data, underwhelming corporate earnings, stretched positioning and poor seasonal trends. While the S&P 500 pared some of its losses, it suffered the biggest plunge in about two years amid strong trading volume. The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 saw its worst start to a month since 2008. Wall Street’s “fear gauge” — the VIX — at one point registered its largest spike in data going back to 1990.

Treasuries lost some steam after a surge that briefly drove two-year yields — which are sensitive to monetary policy — below those on 10-year bonds. Traders are betting the economy is on the verge of deteriorating so quickly the Fed would need to start easing policy aggressively. The repricing was so sharp that the swap market earlier assigned a 60% chance of an emergency rate reduction by the Fed over the coming week. Those odds subsequently ebbed.

“The economy is not in crisis, at least not yet,” said Callie Cox at Ritholtz Wealth Management. “But it’s fair to say we’re in the danger zone. The Fed is in danger of losing the plot here if they don’t better acknowledge cracks in the job market. Nothing is broken yet, but it’s breaking and the Fed risks slipping behind the curve.”

At LPL Financial, Quincy Krosby said that after such a strong rally, valuations, sentiment and positioning had become stretched.

“What markets are experiencing is an unwinding of that bullish positioning,” she said. “Watch for signs of a capitulating Fed, timely evidence of a growing economy, and a successful test of the 200-day moving average on the S&P 500 for signs a bottom may be in.”

The S&P 500 lost 3%, extending a tumble from its peak to 8.5%. US 10-year yields were little changed at 3.78%. The dollar fell. A gauge of perceived risk in the US corporate credit markets soared, with the turmoil effectively shutting down bond sales on what had been expected to be among the busiest days of the year. Bitcoin sank about 10%.

The wave of selling hit a fever pitch in Japan as traders rushed to unwind popular carry trades, powering a 2% jump in the yen and causing the Topix stock index to shed 12% and close the day with the biggest three-day drop in data stretching back to 1959. The rout wiped out US$15 billion (RM66.4 billion) of SoftBank Group Corp’s value on Monday.

“The market is a tug of war between fear and greed,” said Nancy Tengler at Laffer Tengler Investments. “In my 40+ years as a professional investor, it has always paid to buy when others are fearful. Volatility is the friend of long-term investors.”

The US stock plunge is vindicating some prominent bears, who are doubling down with warnings about risks from an economic slowdown. JPMorgan Chase & Co’s Mislav Matejka said equities are set to stay under pressure from weaker business activity, a drop in bond yields and a deteriorating earnings outlook. Morgan Stanley’s Michael Wilson warned of “unfavorable” risk-reward.

“This doesn’t look like a ‘recovery’ backdrop that was hoped for,” Matejka wrote. “We stay cautious on equities, expecting the phase of ‘bad is bad’ to arrive,” he added.

Market veteran Ed Yardeni said that the current equity selloff bears some similarity to the 1987 crash, when the economy averted a downturn despite investor fears at the time.

“This is very reminiscent, so far, of 1987,” Yardeni said on Bloomberg Television. “We had a crash in the stock market — that basically all occurred in one day — and the implication was that we were in, or about to fall into, recession. And that didn’t happen at all. It had really more to do with the internals of the market.”

To Seema Shah at Principal Asset Management, economic weakness concerns will likely prove overdone, but the depth of the negative narrative now implies that an imminent market turnaround is unlikely. A sustained market recovery needs a catalyst, or likely a combination of catalysts, including stabilisation of the Japanese yen, strong earnings numbers, and solid data releases.

“It’s complicated — return of the ‘R’ word derailing the Goldilocks trade,” said Maxwell Grinacoff at UBS Investment Bank. “Similar to what we witnessed amidst the small-cap rotation a few weeks ago, the degree of moves was clearly exacerbated by stretched positioning. The difference today is there is fundamental backing to elevated levels of risk premia, from both a macro and earnings perspective.”

After a very strong first half, the market had become extended on a short-term basis and the bar for positive surprises too high — and a little bit of bad news has gone a long way, according to Keith Lerner at Truist Advisory Services.

“From a stock market perspective, our base case has not changed,” Lerner said. “Our work still suggests the bull market deserves the benefit of the doubt. However, we have been expecting a choppier environment into the back half of July and August given the sharp rebound from April, stretched sentiment, and the fact that we’re entering a seasonally weaker period of the calendar year.”

Moreover, after strong first halves, historically we have seen a typical pullback of 9% at some point, even while markets still tended to end higher by the end of the year.

Notably, over the past 40 years, the S&P 500 has averaged a maximum intra-year pullback of 14%. Despite this, stocks have still shown an average return (not compounded) of 13% and risen in 33 out of 40 of those years, or 83% of the time, Lerner said.

“While always uncomfortable and typically accompanied by bad news, pullbacks are the admission price to the stock market,” Lerner said. “This is what provides the potential for higher longer-term returns relative to most other asset classes.”

Investors should rationally consider the current landscape, according to Russell Price at Ameriprise. Are markets correcting because they may have seen equity market gains come too far too fast? Or are markets falling because of true threats over economic conditions and the possibility of a global recession?

“We believe, the preponderance of evidence supports the former,” Price says. “The US economy is currently moderating to more sustainable rates, but a near-term recession is not the most likely path ahead, in our view. Even if it were, we believe central banks have ample fire power to lower rates to restimulate activity, if necessary, which should once again entice capital toward stocks.”

When investors turned their calendars to August, they may have flipped the narrative on the economy at the same time, according to John Lynch at Comerica Wealth Management.

“It’s been less than two weeks since the second quarter GDP report surprised to the upside, with equity markets hovering near record levels, yet there is growing sentiment is that the Fed has waited too long to cut interest rates and is now behind the curve,” Lynch said. “While we’re not completely sold on the new narrative, the one thing that seems certain is that there is more volatility ahead.”

Investors should hedge their risk exposure even if they own high quality assets as US stocks extend losses, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc’s Tony Pasquariello.

“There are times to go for the gas, and there are times to go for the brake — I’m inclined to ratchet down exposures and roll strikes,” Pasquariello wrote. He added that it’s difficult to think that August will be one of those months where investors should carry a significant portfolio risk.

Systematic funds have offloaded more than US$130 billion of global stock bets in recent weeks. Now these rules-based players threaten to take their selling to a whole new level as volatility spikes.

Strategies including risk parity, vol-targeting and trend following will dispose US$70 billion to US$80 billion of shares Monday, with at least US$90 billion more to unwind over the next four sessions, according to estimates from Morgan Stanley’s trading team.

To Michael Gapen at Bank of America Corp, markets are getting ahead of the Fed again.

“Incoming data have raised concerns that the US economy has hit an ‘air pocket.’ A rate cut in September is now a virtual lock, but we do not think the economy needs aggressive, recession-sized cuts.”

Equity markets experienced one of the most severe rotations in years in July, with small cap and value stocks surging and mega cap tech stocks selling off. A key question for investors is whether this move continues or fades out similar to previous rotations, according to Jeff Schulze at ClearBridge Investments.

“While a growth scare could spark a retracement of this rotation, we ultimately expect a pickup in economic growth which should favour small cap, value and cyclicals,” he said. “Leadership rarely moves in a straight line, and we believe the near term (the next several months) could see an oscillation that favors the previous leadership on the perception of safety if the economy cools further. Ultimately, we believe a soft landing will play out.”

As the selloff in global stocks intensified Monday, JPMorgan Chase & Co’s trading desk said the rotation out of the technology sector might be “mostly done” and the market is “getting close” to a tactical opportunity to buy the dip.

Buying of stocks by retail investors has slowed quickly, positioning by trend-following commodity trading advisers has fallen a lot across equity regions and hedge funds have been net sellers of US stocks, JPMorgan’s positioning intelligence team wrote in a Monday note to clients.

“Overall, we think we’re getting close to a tactical opportunity to buy-the-dip,” wrote John Schlegel, JPMorgan’s head of positioning intelligence. “That said, whether we get a strong bounce or not could depend on future macro data.”

“The euphoria of the first quarter is quickly becoming a distant memory as weaker economic data is raising voices for a Fed cut in rates soon, and maybe before their next meeting,” said Paul Nolte at Murphy & Sylvest Wealth Management. “We are in the early stages of the ‘dog days of summer’ and things are heating up on Wall Street.”

Uploaded by Isabelle Francis

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/721781

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Koers IUSA vandaag: 51,58